The Case for John Edwards

Having awakened this morning to news of cascading overseas stock markets, my first thought was whether I had the courage to stick with my battered Roth IRA portfolio, or whether I should start bailing out and taking my losses.

I decided to stick. It's gonna hurt for a while - perhaps as long as a year. But I've invested in solid companies which looked - a few months ago - to have strong upside potential, and which are, even now, stocks Warren Buffet wouldn't sneer at.

Reflecting thus, my thoughts turned to John Edwards, whose recent fortunes would arouse the sympathy of many on Wall Street - had they any to spare.

And it occurred to me that Edwards should stick, too. For one very simple reason.

It ain't over.

The campaign between Hillary and Obama is getting nastier - and more personal - by the week. Each of these celebrity candidates seems to feel somehow entitled to the Democratic nomination, and their increasing petulance threatens to become just a bit much.

And that's Edwards' first hope. If Hillary and Obama become so obnoxious that they start alienating voters - particularly independents with no particular stake in either front-runner - he might start attracting second looks.

As an alternative, or simply a protest vote against the adolescent antics of the leaders.

But there's more to it. With the Super Duper Tuesday primaries likely to split indecisively, it's not inevitable that someone will arrive at the Denver convention with a majority of the delegates.

And if Clinton and Obama - and their respective backers - keep acting as they now are, it's entirely possible neither of them will be able to win the convention. A deadlock could emerge, with neither candidate's supporters willing to switch.

Which would leave John Edwards in an interesting position.

He might, of course, play kingmaker - but if I were Edwards, I'd be thinking about snatching victory from the jaws of third place.

He should start talking, openly, about adopting Abe Lincoln's strategy from 1860.

In that fateful year, Lincoln arrived at the Chicago convention in third place - but as everyone's second choice. The leading candidates - Seward and Chase - despised each other, and the supporters of each felt that, if their man couldn't win, they were damned if they'd let the other guy get the nomination.

In the end, that worked out well for Lincoln - and the Nation.

If I were Edwards, here's what I'd say. 'For now, my presence in the campaign might encourage my two opponents to play nice - but if they refuse to do so, I might wind up being the only candidate left who can unite the party.

'And believe me, I don't mind being everyone's second choice - so long as I'm their ultimate choice.'

It's a long shot, but it beats bowing out.

So, just as I'm holding onto my portfolio, I think I'll hang onto my Edwards bumper stickers for a while longer.

You never know...