The other prominent politician who should be kicking himself these days is John Edwards, whose precipitate departure from the Democratic race looks more foolish with each primary or caucus.
Granted, Mr. Edwards was no match for the celebrity of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama - but could no one in his camp have foreseen the possibility of a deadlocked convention?
I did not publish to this effect - which will affect my credibility with some - but I recall telling friends in late 2007 that the front-loading of the primary season would very likely lead to at least one party choosing its nominee the old-fashioned way. It seemed to me obvious that - with the mechanism of momentum-building removed from the picture - no candidate would be likely to secure a majority of delegates in advance.
Sadly, no campaign - other than Mayor Giuliani's - foresaw this possibility. And because he was alone in this, he failed.
But imagine another scenario. Imagine that Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, and Ron Paul all announced - at the outset - that they intended to focus on the states where they had the best shot at winning delegates. Had they done so - putting their time and money where it would do the most good - they might all still be in the race.
This argument has even more force on the Democratic side. Had the lesser-known candidates all adopted a strategy of campaigning only where they were strongest - plainly advertising their intention of going to the convention with a pocketful of delegates awarded by proportional representation - not even a unanimity of super-delegates could have forced a decision before Denver.
Indeed, with his strength among working-class whites, John Edwards could easily have made it to Denver with between 10% and 15% of the delegates. Suppose that, instead of ending his campaign, Edwards had said:
"It is now obvious that I am not going to be the first choice of the majority of Democrats. But I hope to demonstrate, in time, that I am the second choice of most Democrats - and perhaps, come Denver, the final choice of my party. Thus, I will continue my campaign - scaling down to accommodate my limited funds, and focusing on states where I can win the most delegates. I will pursue the strategy Abraham Lincoln pursued in 1860, campaigning so as to earn the respect of all Democrats - and, should the convention deadlock, offering myself as a legitimate, tested alternative to the two front-runners."
Had Mr. Edwards offered himself on this basis, he might now be the beneficiary of many votes from Democrats and independents who are having second thoughts about Senator Obama, but who remain reluctant to endorse Senator Clinton. He might be in a position to help the party leadership avoid a head-to-head bloodbath in Denver.
And he might - just might - have wound up in the White House.
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