One of my favorite legends from English history is that
of King Canute, the eleventh-century Danish warrior-king whose reign briefly
interrupted the rise of the Anglo-Saxon monarchy begun by Alfred the Great.
The tale has many versions. This is my favorite.
Wearied by his courtiers' flattery, Canute commanded that
his throne be placed on the beach at low tide.
Then, seating himself in all his majesty, the King commanded the ocean
not to rise. He repeated his command
from time to time until the waters lapped about his feet, his ankles, and
finally his knees.
Canute commanded that his throne be carried back indoors,
and from that time forward, whenever a courtier grew excessive in his praise,
Canute would remind him of the sea's reverence for his earthly power and
majesty.
Whatever the truth of this story, it fits with history's
overall appraisal of King Canute as a shrewd ruler. The legend itself credits him with a kind of
wisdom which often eludes kings - and our times, democratic majorities - i.e.,
the ability to distinguish between wishes and facts.
In our own country, both Left and Right have often acted as
though mere opinion could change the laws of nature - including human
nature. Such wishful thinking almost inevitably
results in bad public policy.
One glaring example of magical thinking in American
politics may be found in our continued belief that extracting, transporting,
and burning fossils fuels solves anything.
That we are addicted to fossil fuels is, if lamentable,
not yet fatal. But it's an addiction we
need to break because it isn't - like an addiction to coffee - essentially harmless.
For one thing, fossil fuels don't exist in inexhaustible
supply. While estimates vary, most
experts agree that we are nearing - if not past - the point at which half of
all oil reserves have been pumped out.
When you consider that we've used up about half of the planet's oil in a
century - and that there are far more of us now, using a lot more oil per
person - it seems clear that our dependence upon this commodity will soon have
to end.
Very soon, indeed.
Oil companies - like all intelligent agents - tend to go first for the
"low-hanging fruit", i.e.,
the oil that's easiest to pump and refine.
More and more, we're having to find oil deep in the seas, with the
resulting risks of ruptured wells; or in polar regions, with the added costs and dangers of shipping oil over long
distances; or in oil sands, with the added economic and environmental costs of its
extraction.
Oil, as an important source of fuel, is in its last few decades. And, while it lasts, it will continue to grow
rapidly more expensive as growing numbers of Asians, Latin Americans, and
Africans compete for a resource which used to be reserved for the use of
Europeans and North Americans.
For the time being, natural gas seems to be picking up
some of the slack. But we're beginning
to wake up to the dangers and costs associated with "fracking" - and,
as these inevitably come to light - Americans will begin to question the value
of a fuel source which, like oil, seems
to offer only a few decades of relief from the need to change our ways.
Moreover, these arguments completely ignore the simple
reality that fossil fuels - all of them - contribute to global climate change.
With respect to climate change, our time is beginning to
run out. There are still, of course,
climate-change skeptics. But the past
decade has seen a steady movement of former skeptics - especially scientists
and hardheaded realists like corporate, military, and national intelligence
leaders - into the camp of the persuaded and alarmed.
With the exception of the ever-flexible Mitt Romney - and
other Republicans who want to be nominated by their increasingly irrational
party - there has been no comparable movement of believers into the ranks of
the skeptical.
Energy and the environment don't figure to be a major
issue in this campaign. Both major-party
candidates will be trying to convince us that they know how to "bring
back" jobs and economic prosperity.
The problem, of course, is that no one can "bring
back" an economy based on fossil fuels - or at least, not for long. The next economy will be based on new
assumptions - and new energy sources.
John Adams said it well, five years before the
Revolution. "Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our
wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the
state of facts and evidence."
It's time Americans began facing the stubborn facts of an over-populated, energy spendthrift world - and looking for
someone to lead us forward into a new economy based on sustainability and
renewable energy.
King Canute would have understood that. His fleets were powered by wind-power and the
strong arms of his Viking warriors.
And he was wise enough to know when the
tide was coming in.
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