To: EAW (Memo 1)

Re:  Thinning the Herd.

Senator Warren,

Congratulations on a thoroughly impressive performance at the June 26th debate.  You did everything you had to do to maintain and enhance your standing in the polls.  You were fortunate, I think, in your draw.  The June 27th debate was far less suited to your style.  As the only front-runner on the stage Wednesday night, you dominated the field without having to raise your voice.  An excellent start!

After the debate, and tonight's campaign contribution reporting deadline, some of your competitors will begin to find themselves wondering how much longer they can go on.  A consistent 0% to 1% in the polls can be discouraging, especially as the DNC's criteria for participation in future debates tighten.

Given these considerations, as I see it, your best move would be to start finding ways to "thin the herd".  It might be that you could, yourself, persuade one or more of your rivals to drop out of the race and endorse your candidacy.

Obviously, this would have to be done with great tact.  Egos are involved.  Ambitious hopes must be surrendered.  And of course, you certainly don't want to appear presumptuous.  Still, as and where you have the personal contacts, it might be worthwhile to find opportunities to seek the support of some of your rivals over the next month or so.

I chose that word, rivals, for a very specific reason.  I assume you have read Doris Kearns Goodwin's celebrated Team of Rivals, about Lincoln's decision to invite most of his Republican rivals into his Cabinet.  I think it might be useful to begin working references to that book into your stump speech.

You might say that you have been very impressed with the caliber of the Democratic field - both those who debated and some who (like Senator Bullock and Congressman Moulton) were excluded.  And that you think - regardless of who ends up as the nominee - the next Democratic President would do well to follow Lincoln's example.  There are a number of candidates whose understanding of specific issues, and passion for those issues, would make them invaluable in the next Cabinet.

A case in point would be Governor Jay Inslee of Washington.  He is justly passionate about climate change.  He's quite articulate on the subject.  He has been repeatedly rebuffed by the DNC in his pursuit of a debate specifically dedicated to that issue.  By now, the Governor probably knows that he is not going to be the nominee, but he won't want to drop out until he's assured that this issue is placed front-and-center in this campaign - right through November, 2020 - and that the next President places it at the top of her agenda.

Perhaps someone on your team has contacts with someone on the Governor's staff.  Perhaps you could find a way to talk with him, one-on-one, to assure him that you would value his input, if he decides to get out of the race.  Perhaps there are gestures you could make in that direction - such as advocating that the EPA be made a Cabinet department.  His support would be helpful in Washington, a Super Tuesday state.  It might also create momentum for other candidates to consider dropping out to join your team.

And, of course, your team could learn something from him about specific environmental policies that could become part of your growing program.

To be sure, this strategy - finding ways to encourage the 0% and 1% candidates to endorse you - is not a general prescription.  You are better off with some candidates remaining in the field, for a number of reasons.

You should be happy, for example, for Joe Biden to stay around for as long as he cares to.  Despite his lead in the polls, he isn't going to be the nominee.  As you and other viable candidates become better known, his support will bleed away.  But the longer he stays in, the longer he keeps the old-school "third way" Democrats from consolidating behind some perceived "moderate" who is more viable.

Why do I assert so boldly that Joe won't be the nominee?  Because he's tired.  He lacks passion and vision.  He reminds me of Dick Gephardt in 2004.  I was in New Hampshire during the last week of 2003 - volunteering for Howard Dean - and I saw Gephardt work a bagel shop in Corcord, NH.  It was clear he was doing a victory lap - enjoying a "last hurrah".  He was the past, not the future.  Same with old Joe.

You should also be extremely happy for Bernie to stick around, even though his supporters would probably migrate to you if he dropped out..  My guess is that Bernie will long retain the support of his true believers, but that he will have a hard time winning significant new support.  He has no new ideas.  No new rhetoric, for that matter.  He's like a classic rock band on tour - still a great show, but basically all you're going to hear is his greatest hits.

Still, as long as Bernie stays in, he does two things for you.  First, makes you appear more moderate.  (As you are, of course, but you know what they say about appearances and reality in politics.)  Second - if you'll pardon my candor here, ma'am - he makes you look younger.  In future debates, you'll probably end up standing next to Mayor Pete at some point.  Well, he makes us all look ancient.  Can't help that.  But for now, Bernie is great for you.

Anyway, neither Biden nor Bernie is your real challenge.  Barring the unexpected, your ultimate competition will likely be Kamala Harris and Mayor Pete.  Joe will fade, slowly, but inexorably.  Bernie won't gain new support.  Cory Booker might pick up some adherents, as might Julian Castro.  We'll see.  Still, I think you wind up in a three-horse race coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire.

So - if you'll excuse the presumption - your game plan for now is to continue doing what you're doing.  Talk up your well-researched, well-defined plans.  (Not too many more of these, for now, okay?  Let's be sure people understand what you've already proposed.) 

Add in references to the "team of rivals" idea.  Let that idea work quietly on the 0% and 1% candidates and their supporters.

To the extent possible, be alert for opportunities to chat with those lagging candidates.  As a rule, any marginal candidate you can persuade to drop out and endorse you is a bonus.

Finally, study Kamala and Mayor Pete.  They are your real rivals, down the road.  If all goes well, and you pull ahead in the  delegate count, Kamala would be an excellent running mate for you.   So would Mayor Pete - but I rather like the idea of a two-woman ticket.  It's never been done, and women will be the key to this election. 

Why not?