To EAW (Memo 3: Electability.)

Senator Warren,

As you approach the second round of debates, I believe you are well-positioned to win the Democratic nomination.  In writing this, while I note Aaron Blake's recent ranking of the top fifteen Democratic candidates (Washington Post, July 26, 2019), my conclusion rests on my personal assessment of the nomination contest.  I have no inside information, just a lifetime study of history and politics, my own gut feelings about you, as a person, and my sense of the times we are passing through.

As I see it, only one major obstacle stands between you and nomination - the question of "electability".

This question is not entirely new.  There are those who will insist that it is - that it is merely another manifestation of sexism in our culture.  Perhaps that is partly the case.  But to a certain extent, as long as their have been elections, the question has arisen whether a given candidate possessed the necessary qualities to appeal to the citizens of his (usually "his") time.

What is new, I suspect, is the fact that perfectly good liberals and progressives are willing to ask - out loud - whether you are electable, because you are a woman.  In public, where I represent you as a volunteer coordinator for my small Oregon county, I am asked the question point-blank.

Is Elizabeth Warren electable?

Fortunately, in my own person, I have little difficulty answering this question.  I'm a mature man - about your years.  Having, in the course of my life odyssey, practiced law, taught history, and acted professionally, I have a certain amount of presence.  I've been involved in politics most of my life.  So I can say, with a degree of confidence and command, something like this:

It amazes me how many people - not just pundits and political scientists, but ordinary citizens - think there's a way to tell who is "electable".  I've been around politics since I was nine years old, and the question always reminds me of what William Goldman - who wrote the screenplays for "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid" and "The Princess Bride" - said in his book about Hollywood:  "Nobody knows anything."

What Goldman meant was that nobody knows what movie will be a hit or a flop.  Millions - sometimes hundreds of millions - are risked to make a movie.  Risked by men and women who have spent their careers in Hollywood.  And, remarkably often, they get it wrong.

The same is certainly true of politics.

Four years ago, how many people thought this country would ever elect Donald Trump President?  Twelve years ago, how many people doubted that America was ready to elect its first black President?  I'm sure you can think of many, equally good, examples.

So the answer to your question about Elizabeth's electability is what Bill Goldman said about the movie business:  "Nobody knows anything."

The only person who is absolutely, definitely electable is the person who was elected yesterday.

So - if nobody knows who is electable - why don't we forget speculating about that, and focus instead on another question:  Who would make the best President?

Senator, I don't know how to translate my answer into a form that could be used by someone new to politics - a first-time canvasser or a young citizen in an Iowa caucus room.  As noted, I have certain acquired skills which command a hearing.  But I believe this is the true answer to the question.  Your staff will be able to find versions of my answer that suit different volunteers, but that's the message.

There is, however, another aspect to the question of electability which deserves attention - and a good deal of caution.  Your own advisors - your staff - need thoroughly to purge themselves of any concerns they may harbor about your electability.  Those concerns must be exorcised.  Your staff must put all doubts about electability entirely out of their heads.

And so must you.

Because, until that happens, there will always be a danger - a propensity to want to package you in some way intended to make you more appealing to the public.  In other words, when your staff, your advisors, your pollsters - even you yourself - question your electability, there will always be the temptation to remake yourself into someone more electable. 

And this can lead to embarrassing - or even fatal - mistakes.

The most tragic recent example of this was the transformation of Al Gore into a wooden, almost robotic parody of himself during the campaign of 2000.  I've seen Al speak to a large crowd at his Climate Reality training in Denver two years ago.  He was warm, enthusiastic, and energetic.  If that version of Al Gore had run for President in 2000, there would have been no George W. Bush presidency - and much of recent history would have gone very differently.

Senator, you are all you need to be to win the Presidency, and to be a great President.  Not just good.  Great.  Top Five great.

You, and the people around you, need to know that.  Do not let them package you.  The next time you go to the fridge to get yourself a beer, let it be because you're thirsty after a long day of campaigning - not because someone decided it made you seem "folksy".

You are who you are.  We haven't met, but I sense that you probably feel at your best as a classroom teacher - or as a Senator who is functioning as an educator.  I often say that you remind me of that wonderful high school teacher - everyone had one - who opened complex ideas to her students, and made them feel smart about understanding those ideas.  The teacher who didn't talk down to her students, but lifted them up. 

Whenever I say that, people nod their heads.  They see it, too.

If that good teacher is the real you, that's a wonderful persona for a President.  Lincoln used that same skill-set - which he acquired by educating small-town juries about complex legal and factual issues - to lead the Republic through the dark days of the Civil War.

But whether I'm right or wrong about that, you know who you are.  Trust that.  Trust yourself.  Tell your staff they must do the same thing.

Most of all, forget electability.  We'll all know if you were electable on November 4, 2020.

In the meanwhile, be yourself - and devote your energies to learning more about who we are.

Thanks for your consideration.