John McCain may be the best-qualified candidate remaining in the presidential field, but as Obamania sweeps the campuses, the cities, and the more liberal suburbs, it's starting to seem that he faces a daunting challenge putting together the necessary 271 electoral votes.
Strategic suggestions abound, but many of them are hopelessly out-of-date in the changed context of 2008.
For example, McCain can't simply cozy up to the conservative base that elected George W. Bush, because that base has been decimated - and more than decimated - by the most incompetent Administration since James Buchanan. Even if the base were willing to be wooed, everything MCain did to please them would alienate critical moderates.
Nor can McCain negative on Obama, because - let's face it - the national media have fallen in love with the gentleman from Illinois. And because, frankly, attacking a black candidate is too easy to label as bigotry in an America still coming to terms with issues of race.
Nor can MCain counter Obama's lock on the black vote with an appeal to the Hispanic community because the Republican Party has painted itself into an absurd corner with its abuse of rational immigration reform as "amnesty".
Moreover, Senator Obama is incredibly articulate - and his calls for national unity and a new beginning can stir even the most jaded to at least temporary enthusiasm.
Let's assume, for the moment, that Obama has no serious skeletons in his closet - an uncertain assumption for any politician emerging from the Illinois Democratic machine. If that is the case, McCain's likely opponent has only one weakness - a weakness any high school debater would spot immediately.
He never deals with the costs. Obama promises a virtual cornucopia, but he never talks about who will bear the burden. His "Yes, We Can" is, upon examination, as illusory as the rising prices of last year's real estate market.
But how can McCain make this point?
Not, I think, in the manner which has proven so ineffective for Senator Clinton. Americans are not in a rational mood this year, so an appeal to rational cost-benefit analysis will scarcely move them.
What McCain must do is offer an equally inspiring agenda - but one which calls for sacrifice.
Think of it.
Suppose McCain begins by revisiting his vote against the Bush tax cuts, pointing out that his rationale was one of shared sacrifice. Suppose he reminds voters of his "tough talk" in the Michigan primary. Suppose that he goes on to throw a challenge in the teeth of Grover Norquist and the other anti-tax vermin, confessing that the Republican Party's failure of leadership has stemmed from its willingness to borrow and spend, rather than to bear the present burdens of present benefits.
Suppose McCain were to borrow a page from JFK's inaugural address and offer a program of real sacrifice.
As long as our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines are in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, Americans must share the burden by paying - not borrowing - the costs of the war.
As long as America is addicted to foreign oil, we must use a creative tax formula - perhaps a per gallon fuel tax, with an exemption for the first 30 gallons purchased by an individual driver each month.
As long as global warming is a threat, a bold program of lifestyle-altering programs will be enacted to make America the world's leader in reducing carbon emissions.
And long as some young Americans bear the price of keeping us safe, all young Americans will be required to participate in a serious National Service program - eighteen months of active military duty, followed by time in the reserves, or thirty months of approved civilian service - to be completed before age 25.
Such a strategy would be risky, but it has three great advantages. First, it suits the personality and personal history of John McCain - a patriot and hero who bears in his flesh the scars of the personal price he has paid for his country.
Second, it would have the effect of throwing into profound contrast the cost-free utopianism behind Obama's candidacy.
Third, it would challenge the core of Obama's support - privileged, educated young people - to ante up with something more than words.
Which might, indeed, alienate America's entitled generation, of course. But then, Senator McCain has precious few votes to lose among this demographic - and many to gain among older Americans who understand that all good things come with a price.
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It would be a novel approach to move the call for sacrifice from an inaugural address, where it is useful to reset expectations back down in anticipation of actually governing, to the campaign, where traditionally expectations of the bounty to come are elevated.
In terms of actually working, this approach would have had a better chance if a second-tier candidate had pounded on it for a while, to gauge how people responded. Then McCain could adopt it more safely. Remember, Republicans have been under the spell of Voodoo economics for a long time now and they're likely to be grumpy on awakening.
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