Wednesday, December 27, 2006

A Tax America Needs

It all comes down to oil.

But for oil money, we would likely never have heard of George W. Bush. Or, for that matter, Osama bin Laden.

Ponder that.

Oil money funds the rising power of Iran – and, through Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. It provides much of the financing for Vladimir Putin’s resurgent, disturbingly neo-Soviet, Russia. It enables the Bolivarian revolution which threatens to sweep out of Venezuela to dominate the Caribbean and Latin America.

Even as oil money strengthens our adversaries, America keeps sending dollars abroad to support its oil habit – a fact which has transformed us from the world’s generous creditor into its biggest debtor. At its heart, our permanent trade imbalance has less to do with Wal-Mart than with the corner Exxon station.

Setting all that aside, emissions from automobiles play a critical role in the dawning emergency of global warming.

We must begin cutting back on our consumption of oil, and every thinking American knows it.

The problem is, of course, that our two political parties prefer to focus on replacing foreign oil with something else. Preferably, something produced domestically. Ideally, something produced in abundance in the politically-vital state of Iowa.

Which is simply no answer at all. A gallon of corn-based ethanol requires nearly a gallon of gasoline to produce – making the ethanol subsidy a poor bargain, but a magnificent political boondoggle.

Besides, even if we could grow our own, switching fuels would do little to slow the melting of polar ice-caps, the rising intensity of violent weather systems, the lengthening life-cycles of destructive insects, and the spread of tropical diseases into once-temperate zones.

To reduce our dependence on oil, while addressing global environmental catastrophe, we must use less energy.

To use a word grown curiously hateful to modern conservatives, we must conserve.

The most effective first step toward conservation would be to engage ordinary Americans in thinking seriously about how to reduce their individual reliance on gasoline. If we could do that, the rest would follow.

The proof? Consider what happened to the market for gas guzzlers during last summer’s spike in oil prices. Or the less dramatic, but equally significant, changes in driving behavior.

Market forces work. But that does not – must not – mean we should be entirely at the mercy of unregulated markets. We can manipulate markets to provide incentives for conservation – and the obvious way to do that is artificially to raise the price of gasoline and diesel fuel at the pump.

What we need, as every thoughtful American knows, is to raise the price of gasoline. And the obvious way to do that is through a whopping gasoline surtax, payable at the pump.

The problem with this obvious solution is politics. Big Oil, Detroit, and the Club for Greed would go after a surtax the way Big Pharma and the insurance industry went after the Clinton health reforms.

You can picture the TV ads.

Still, a gasoline surtax is the obvious answer. And, since Americans aren’t very good at trading short-term pain for long-term gain, we need a surtax that doesn’t hurt too much, too quickly, or cause massive disruptions in our lives.

Indeed, we need a surtax that is easy to avoid. Because, as much as Americans hate taxes, they love avoiding taxes even more.

What we need is a surtax that seriously influences energy consumption, but is relatively easy to beat.

Something like this...

A Federal surtax of $1.00 per gallon on gasoline (and diesel) – exempting each licensed, adult driver from the surtax on the first thirty gallons purchased each month.

With modern technology, it should be a simple matter to issue each licensed driver a magnetized card – like a valued customer discount card – which gas station pumps could be adjusted to read. The card would automatically exempt the bearer from the surtax for the first thirty gallons purchased each month. Beginning with the thirty-first gallon, the surtax would kick in.

The average American drives around 10,000 miles a year – about 30 gallons a month in a reasonably fuel-efficient vehicle. Thus, most Americans could avoid paying the tax by making minor modifications in their driving habits. Those who prefer driving gas guzzlers would have to get more creative – but most people could avoid the tax, with a bit of effort.

Such an easily avoided surtax would produce relatively little revenue, but it would work a gradual change in individual consciousness. Like dieters counting carbs, drivers would start keeping track of how many gallons they consumed each month.

Families would give more thought to consolidating trips. Those in the market for cars would look more seriously at fuel efficiency. Intelligent drivers would slow down a bit, which would make us all safer.

A surtax would also exercise a slight, but continuous pressure against long-distance commuting – thus working subtly to curtail suburban sprawl.

But the immediate impact of the surtax would be nothing compared to its long-term utility. Having established a method of encouraging conservation, we could gradually ratchet down the number of gallons exempted – say, one gallon every two years – until, in twenty years, the surtax applied to every gallon over twenty.

That’s a serious reduction in gasoline consumption – but one which allows plenty of time for Detroit to design sexy, fuel-efficient vehicles, and for developers to discover the potential of reviving our cities and close-in suburbs. Time, indeed, for our metropolitan areas to get serious about mass transit.

A surtax along these lines would provide a flexible tool for gradually moving America toward serious energy conservation. It wouldn’t be painless, but it would minimize disruption while imposing a slow, steady market pressure in favor of energy conservation.

And it would square with what we know about Americans’ attitudes toward taxes. By involving all of us in a perpetual hunt for new ways to avoid using more than the exempted number of gallons each month, it would enlist American ingenuity in a permanent search for ways to reduce our dependence on oil.

Worth a try, don’t you think?

12 comments:

'Rick Gray said...

JMG: I appreciate your detailed reply, but I am unpersuaded.

My plan may not be perfect, but your counterproposal seems to me entirely unrealistic, reflecting an entire misunderstanding of how markets work.

Say we set the price at $4.00/gallon, as you suggest. You have just eliminated all market competition and created a monopoly price for gasoline. What is to prevent the oil companies from simply raising their prices to absorb all the additional revenue, leaving nothing to fund your welfare-like scheme for eliminating automobile insurance?

But that’s not the worst of it. Your plan is politically impossible. Millions of Americans would be drastically and immediately affected by a sudden, steep increase in gasoline prices, which would absorb a good deal of disposable income, thus hurting every sector of the consumer-driven economy and crippling the travel industry. It would never pass Congress -- nor should it.

What makes my plan – if I may say so – ingenious is that it relies on giving drivers an incentive to cut back on driving in order to avoid the tax. If absolutely no revenue resulted because everyone cut back to 30 gallons/month, my plan would have succeeded beyond my wildest hopes.

Your plan, by starting with the first gallon purchased, is punitive, imposing huge costs on people for basic, necessary transportation.

Our fundamental difference seems to be that I want to adapt markets to achieve a social goal, while you prefer a command model with ignores markets altogether. I'd suggest that such models nearly always fail.

In response to some of your lesser arguments:

1. You say that my proposed $1.00 surtax is arbitrary. By what complex formula did you derive your $4.00 fixed price?

2. You maintain that drivers would joyfully burn up their last gallons each month because it cost only, say, $2.20/gallon instead of $3.20/gallon. I know very few people over 18 who would act in such an immature manner.

3. You argue that any conservation resulting from my plan would result in lowering oil prices. ANY plan encouraging conservation would have that tendency, but we must still conserve. And remember, there are other factors – including the burgeoning energy demands of Asia’s economies – which will continue to drive prices upward.

4. You suggest that there are crooks who will cheat the system. Very true. But most people are honest – which is why the IRS doesn’t have to employ millions of snoops; why banks continue to issue credit and debit cards; and why retail stores continue to issue gift cards, etc. It’s a weak argument based on a poor opinion of human nature.

Finally, I WILL thank you for obliquely suggesting one problem with my proposal. There would, to be sure, be an incentive for buying the last few gallons on one’s card before the end of the month – which would cause long lines if every driver’s card expired on the same date.

There’s an easy fix, however. Provide for cards to expire on different dates – perhaps the day of the month corresponding to the driver’s birthday, with the first month of the plan having cards coded on a pro-rated basis. (For example, my birthday is March 22. Assume the plan went into effect on January 1, 2008. My card would allow me to buy 22 gallons surtax-exempt during January, 2008, then 30 gallons per month, expiring on the 22nd of each subsequent month.)

Thank you for your comments. You have, without intending to, increased my confidence that I'm on the right track.

Ron Steenblik said...

Dear Mr. Gray,

You might want to post your reply also on the Gristmill blog. I thought your proposal would make an interesting topic for discussion. It seems it has!

My main concern is the cost of running the system. More efficient and equitable would be simply to reduce income taxes by $360 a year to every adult (posessing a drivers' license or not), within the context of an overall tax-neutral change.

Ron Steenblik

'Rick Gray said...

Ronald,

I will look into Gristmill. Thanks.

Every system has some costs, but I doubt the system I describe would cost much. Certainly no more than the revenue it generated.

Your suggestion for a tax cut would not, in my view, accomplish what I want to do. I want Americans to be WORKING TO AVOID the surtax -- thus actively looking for ways to conserve energy. A passive tax cut would not energize that sort of constructive activity.

David S. said...

'Rick,

Once again, your creativity is most welcome. Don't know enough about economics or oil or the demographics relating to vehicle usage, but I know an interesting idea when I see one. I wonder if anybody in a position to explore this from a seat of governance reads your blog and would care to comment (or, dare I say it, to take action)?

Keep on keepin' on, and thanks for providing food for thought.

Ron Steenblik said...

Rick,

I don't understand. If there were a $1.00/gallon tax on every gallon consumed, why would drivers try any less hard to avoid paying that tax than if the $1.00/gallon tax only kicked in after the first 30 gallons consumed in a month?

Ronald

Anonymous said...

I like the notion generally, but agree with the concern that it could be too easily manipulated. I have a simpler proposal. Why not impose a use tax, based upon miles driven? The use tax might work as follows:

(1) every car is subject to an annual safety inspection in Virginia. At each inspection, an odometer reading is taken. The total miles driven since the last inspection is multiplied by the tax rate assigned to that car.

(2) The tax rate is determined by the EPA MPG rating for the car. The less efficient the car, the higher the rate, and thus the higher the tax.

(3) Appropriate exemptions are provided for low income people and people who live in regions without suitable public transportation options.

I think this system may have a number of advantages. It provides incentives to drive less and to use more fuel efficient vehicles. It also fits reasonably well into our existing regulatory structure. Finally, I think there are fewer opportunities for fraud and manipulation.

What do you think?

'Rick Gray said...

I appreciate your comments, but I am astonished that you think your proporal "simpler". By imposing a tax based on formulas, you miss the direct impact of paying (or not paying) the surtax EVERY TIME you fill up your tank. Also, basing a tax on EPA ratings provides no incentive to improve your car's mileage by, for example, keeping tires properly inflated, doing routine maintenance, accelerating more slowly, and observing speed limits. I'm interested in influencing BEHAVIOR, not just taxing people.

'Rick Gray said...

Ronald,

Obviously, you are right -- people would work to avoid a surtax on the first gallon, if that were taxed. But my suspicion is that they would decide to work, instead, to defeat the proposal entirely.

I am new to the blogging world, but let me be clear. I am interested in practical solutions which a reasonably courageous political leadership could enact with some chance of surviving the next election.

I believe my surtax proposal meets that criterion better than any alternative I have seen thus far.

Ron Steenblik said...

Rick,

Put my comments together. My first one was addressed to your idea of issuing, essentially, ration cards. I suggested it would be cheaper, and administratively easier, simply to provide a tax rebate of $360 a year (= $1.00/gallon x 30 gallons/month x 12 months) to each adult.

You seemed to think that was the sum of my counter-proposal: provide a tax rebate, but do not increase the tax on gasoline.

I thought my second comment made it clear I was talking about BOTH a rebate and a surtax.

So, just to be crystal clear, I would be interested to hear why you think your proposal would be more politically palatable, and more efficient, than a $1.00 surtax on every gallon proposed, combined with a $360/gallon per person annual tax rebate.

Anonymous said...

Hi Rick,
I'm with you on the subjects of America's seemingly flipant energy consumption and the frightening prospects of a future with no plan (as of) today.
Your proposal of a tax to consumers of more than a set amount of fuel a month/year would not affect me since i drive a subcompact that is well below your proposed range.

This is fine with me and i'd squeal with delight if giant SUVs transporting only one person talking on cell phone heading to Wal Mart in another move to convert $US to Yen-- were to be forced off the road.

Besides the market forces adjustment that the others spoke of, i offer two more items;
1) maybe i missed it, but what about commercial vehicles that use 100gals/a day? Would these be exempt from the proposed overconsumption tax? If not, these expenses would be passed back to the consumer in the marketplace and those abiding by the plan would pay anyway.
2) There is an attitude in America that i'm sure youre aware of and those people you are trying to reach with your ideas, rather than fellow conservationist such as myself.
I have endured ridicule from some for driving a subcompact. When questioned, they cite safety as the reason for the comments. We all know though, it's a look-at-me thing, i'm smart, i'm successful, i'm bigger than you attitude. Even thought they may be strained to the hilt to pay for such an image/luxury., there's a public image thingy that's strong in America.

Such a Tax would have to be mandated. It is my opinion it would fail if put up to a vote, my proof in the popularity of the large vehicles despite dire warings of gobal environmental collapse, more furture oil wars, financing of dictorships, and all the rest.

Just as the developers in Chesterfield county will not stop until the last forested area is paved or someone's backyard, there is little hope anyone will downsize voluntarily in my mind. It's a brick wall and we'll need a tall ladder.
I just get the feeling people dont care about anything except their image or upscale lifestyle.
There are solutions as you propose, but will we "get it?"
Keep up the great work! At least some of us in the great minority read it.
David

'Rick Gray said...

David and Ronald,

While David seems to like my idea, and Ronald prefers to his "friendly amendment", I can answer you both in the same message.

I am trying to do something new here. Not just a new idea -- a new way of thinking, starting with the stubborn faith that -- if we work at it -- we can enlist a majority of Americans in the same sort of optimistic spirit that JFK tried to tap in the "Ask not" portion of his inaugural address.

David: You like my idea, but are gloomy about its prospects for success because you believe Americans are hopeless narcissistic. You believe such a tax must be IMPOSED. I think it should be SOLD.

You might be right about the American people, but what's the answer if you're right? (Emigration would seem the only logical response.)

Ronald: Of course I read your two comments together. I responded to them. And yes, my idea resembles wartime rationing. It's SUPPOSED to.

What you don't seem to get is that the efficiency I'm after is the efficiency you get by ENLISTING people in a campaign to reduce our energy dependence. (Much as they were ENLISTED in the war effort through rationing, bond drives, and metal collection.)

IMPOSING a tax at one end, and then rebating it at the other, might impact behavior, but people would not feel a part of the effort. Setting a modest target, and a rationing system which allows most people to avoid the tax by gradually improving their PERSONAL conservation efforts, is a way of APPEALING to people to do their bit.

Look, I don't know if you've ever done a "walk" for some cause or other, or bought Scout cookies, or gone to a car wash -- but the idea is the same. The walk is a lot of extra trouble (bureaucracy) compared to having people just send in checks. Same with cookie sales and car washes.

But these activities raise consciousness and make people feel that they are PART of the solution -- not just check-writing machines.

It seems to me that today's liberals have forgotten that, at its heart, good public policy is not IMPOSED on the people, but EMBRACED by them.

If we don't get back to the idea that we are all in this together, and that we have a common interest in solving our problems together, there is no future for liberalism.

Anyway, that's what this blog is about. I trust I have made myself clear, but if I havne't keep reading.




cisely because of the attitude among the American left which assumes that

Ron Steenblik said...

Thank you, Rick, for explaining what you see as the difference between your proposal and my suggested ammendment. I strongly urge you now to read the other 19 comments made by readers of Grist:

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/28/55959/498